Not even the respite that the arrival of fuel gives the regime, for the consumption of only a few weeks, is sufficient to appease the growth of the desperation of the population with rampant hunger and the catastrophic situation of all public services. The protests, which occur without any national coordination and respond to local leaderships, are multiplying and are appearing in the most remote parts of the country. These not so long ago were bastions of Chavismo since they have always depended on the central government. The protests are becoming more and more political, people already sense that there is no hope that their situation will be reversed by the regime. Indeed, the only response available to the regime is repression. The time will come when there will be no capacity for a repressive response to the protest volumes and it is at that moment that the repressors could join the repressed.
There is concern since up to now the international pressure on the regime has come mainly from the United States, and the action has been due to the Trump Administration. Now there are increasing doubts about the reelection odds of President Trump. In the event that a new administration takes over in the United States there will at least be a period of policiy review and strategy towards Venezuela. However, the international situation continues with concerns about the narco-terrorist alliance between Iran, Hezbollah and the Maduro regime. The OAS already took an important action when the OAS Secretary General appointed Jared Genser as Special Adviser on the Responsibility to Protect … “The work of the Special Adviser will begin with analyzing, studying and debating how to develop, together with all interested parties, a mechanism for the OAS to prevent and respond to mass atrocious crimes in the region, and consequently formulate suggestions for possible lines of action by the Organization. If the existing international mechanisms are not responding to the demands and needs of the victims of mass atrocities in the Americas, at least the OAS should try to design and build a regional mechanism that can prevent and respond in a more efficient and timely manner to crimes of this nature in the Western Hemisphere. ”. Meanwhile, Borrell admitted his failure, leading Europe away from a solution in Venezuela.
To this it should be added that despite the pandemic, the transit of Venezuelan walkers to Colombia has begun again. The countries of Latin America, hard hit economically, will now have to face a new wave of Venezuelan refugees. This time they are much less prepared and they know that the only way to stop this is with a political change in Venezuela.
There were Venezuelans who dreamed of the possibility that Chavismo would evolve towards the Chinese model with a relatively open economy. But in reality with the command in the hands of groups associated with illegal activities and in alliance with international terrorist groups that was always an impossibility. Now when Maduro approves the “anti-blockade law”, not only will he increase his power over Venezuela but he will opt for the Russian model. This allows the regime to carry out any operation with the country’s assets without having to make it public. That was the mechanism that allowed the assets of the state, party members and “brains” to become the super rich oligarchs that staunchly support Putin. In Venezuela, it is part of an effort to try to attract capital from abroad and would additionally allow ill-gotten capital to be laundered during the dance of the millions in the early years of Chavismo. Curiously, the left does not like it, since it privatizes goods and services. There are those who also believe that this Anti-Blockade law has a precedent, in 1933 in Germany with the Full Powers Law granted to Adolf Hitler.
The New York Times published an article on the disappearance of the Venezuelan oil industry and it mentions there: “Crippling US sanctions and years of economic mismanagement and corruption (exacerbated by the pandemic) have brought a thriving Venezuelan oil industry to a standstill. . Venezuela, at one time the main Latin American oil producer expects to earn 2.3 billion dollars this year from exports – something very far from the US $ 90 billion it received just a few years ago.”.
The status of the main groups could be summarized as follows:
- Those aligned with the regime – With different attitudes, quiet, complaining about the Anti-Blockade Law or interviewing in the allowed communication channels.
- Capriles – Before withdrawing the candidacies, he was lost. This week he spoke of traveling the “political” route, waiting for the presidential elections in 2024 and, preparing with time for the regional elections. Today he is politically on the floor.
- Guaidó \ G4 – The collapse is difficult to hide. The Consultation is the search for oxygen to achieve legitimacy before 1-5-21. However, the Consultation is not taking off and corruption issues are lurking. There are many people interested in bringing things to the fore, the regime among them.
- María Corina Machado – She continues to rise in the polls and no pollster can hide it anymore. Her proposal has struck a chord but it depends on the USA and there will not be definitions until after 4-11-20.
A good part of the opposition’s job should be to alert international allies to drug trafficking, terrorism, and destabilization actions. If they are not capable of reacting, then it would even be necessary to rethink the sanctions that suffocate the country, because that alone does not seem to be enough.