Venezuela is a desperate country with a significant increase in protests and amidst uncertainty in all political areas. It seems increasingly clear that the regime’s political objective is to eliminate the National Assembly chaired by Guaidó at the expiration of the legislative year on 1/5/21. They thus seek to cut the support of more than 50 democratic countries for Guaidó. To achieve this purpose, with the support of Borrell and the Spanish Government he needs to achieve the minimum of international recognition for the December elections. Much of this is part of a pulse between the US and the EU and, also awaiting the results of the US elections on 11/3.
The regime has done an extraordinary job dividing the Venezuelan opposition, making concessions that are important: the first was the “amnesty” of a significant number of political prisoners and now Michelle Bachelet reports that her office was able to visit SEBIN and DGCIM headquarters. And this happened only this past Saturday 9/12. However, so far it has not been enough since the European Union considers that a postponement in Venezuela would give scope for holding “credible elections.” It will be necessary to see what other movements take place in the next few days. Yet the regime does not seem willing to postpone elections. María Corina Machado is right when she asks if “the European Union will dare to send a Mission that“ explores the “electoral conditions” in Venezuela once the UN Human Rights Mission has proven the conditions in which Maduro has committed and commits crimes against humanity? ”’.
International
Despite the pandemic and how it consumes the interests of each and every country, different pressures continue to move against the Venezuelan regime. In particular, the United States has managed to freeze 700 million dollars related to Álex Saab and through James Story asks Spain to investigate the financing source of certain Venezuelan families in Europe. The Alex Saab extradition is estimated to occur ,despite the enormous effort made by Maduro and his international allies to prevent this fact, to happen at the end of October. On the side of the regime’s allies Russia has given Belarus the financial support US $ 1.5 billion) that was denied to Venezuela. The one that is proving itself as the most faithful ally and also the one who risks the most is Iran, trying among other things to get a minimum of fuel to Venezuela.
Pandemic
In the afternoon of Tuesday 8/9, the official website of the Rafael Rangel National Institute of Hygiene was “knocked down” after showing a table, in the prominent part of the portal that indicated in red 965 deaths due to COVID-19, when the Presidential Commission reported 436 deaths for September 7. That makes a 120% difference. Even this number must be underreported, since it is estimated that the real amount is twice that. Much more worrying is that the Academy of Sciences projects that COVID-19 cases will reach 14,000 a day in the coming months, all this without any national preparation to face a greater number of cases. We are in a race to determine which evil will take effect earlier: the pandemic, the lack of fuel, some key public service, or hunger.
Opposition
The different opposition factions are slowly trying to state their positions for or against participation in the elections. The Washington Post wrote that “Juan Guaidó, the opposition leader, who used to be able to gather hundreds of thousands of opponents, tried last Thursday to have his first public meeting since the start of the pandemic. The response, however, was very weak ”. With regard to the consultation, financing and mobilization are still the big questions. The lack of clarity of this group is noticeable, when Guaidó asks Europe to “set the minimum” for the elections in Venezuela after announcing that he would not participate.
Those who decided to participate in the elections, despite the announced 15% of expected voters, have kept a relatively low profile. Interestingly, the most conspicuous candidates, fearful of public derision, still hide their names behind the alternates when registering for elections. However, the international vision is not very positive in this regard, when El Mundo in Spain publishes “Capriles tries to validate Maduro’s electoral fraud.”
For its part, the church through Father José Virtuoso states that “Guaidó and Capriles must unify strategies if they do not want a lead a burial for the opposition.” One wonders how realistic that request is if it has become clear that the unity that existed within the MUD / G4 coalition has been false for a long time? Doesn’t it seem more logical for an opposition to settle with a composition and vision different from the one that has to date failed and has lost credibility?
