As international pressure is having the most effect at this time, political life in Venezuela runs at a standstill until the US elections in November. Incredibly, the only actions are of an electoral nature: for the regime the parliamentary elections and for the G4 / Guaidó a Consultation which many find out of place in these circumstances. Once the result of the US elections is known a realignment will begin. In the event of a Trump victory the regime will have to rethink its future strategy. If Biden is elected, a waiting period of several months begins for both the opposition and the regime. Maduro expects some kind of relief in sanctions and the opposition faces an unknown future, in any case it means a period of several months of waiting while the new government installs itself and defines its priorities. For Venezuelans, this long period implies continuing the curve of deterioration in their living conditions and the ever decreasing patience. How far is the limit of that patience, coupled with the increase in repression, the only remedy available to the regime? Meanwhile, the services situation in Venezuela is increasingly critical and due to recent accidents, there is even a risk of totally losing the Cardón refinery and gasoline production.
The Venezuelan military world
The military structure has always been a black box for civilians and that has not changed. It is notorious that the local commandos (Zodi) operate with increasing independence, both politically and economically. Its influence at the national level appeared to be very noticeable when a few weeks ago the appointment of the highest authorities of the National Guard was reversed at the highest level in a matter of hours. Now some faction has assassinated the general who would have taken over the leadership of the Zodi Apure. Immediately afterwards, and in a very short period of time, another faction (or the same one) killed 3 involved in a plan to assassinate the General who would take the leadership of the Zodi Apure. This opens many spaces for doubt. Is it about internal struggles within the military establishment? Are there disputes over the control of resources with civilian or paramilitary elements? The concerns must be very complex when reports have also appeared of the construction of secret tunnels to hide regime officials with their high command in case of conflict. An interesting question would be to know who are the parts involved in this conflict? In any case, all this reflects a huge national chaos and the increasingly weak sovereignty of the country.
The pink wave
This is how the international press is calling the recent victories of the left in Argentina and now Bolivia. Undoubtedly, each country has its own conditions, but it does not help at all when politically favorable situations are not taken advantage of (such as those that had governments that were not on the left) in both countries. Of course, it is also difficult to operate under a pandemic. In Bolivia, Evo Morales improved the economy with the new President as Minister of the Economy. There they allowed private participation and had not yet touched the downward curve that is common to this type of regime. From that perspective Evo’s departure was early and due to the latest results it was not effective for the opposition either. The best result that could be expected now in Bolivia is that something similar to that of Ecuador happens, where Lenín Moreno rebelled against his predecessor or that the experience lived would lead Arce to carry out an inclusive government. Time will tell, but when the opportunity presents itself to the center-right, it must take advantage of it and generate favorable conditions for the country in the short and long term.
Opposition
Time will force a greater recomposition of the opposition and that moment is shortening. For the international support it is necessary to extend the life of the AN, however it is not easy to argue it internally with so many problems and people feeling so little in common with the political parties. The group that has dominated the opposition camp in recent years (G4 / Guaidó) is under enormous pressure, as it has not produced results and polls indicate that it has divorced itself from the majority of citizens. This can be seen in the most different ways, when the Episcopal Conference issues its statement stating that the 6D elections have no conditions and are immoral it also criticizes the opposition. Apart from the strong criticism of the concentration on electoral matters (with the Consultation), noise is also being generated within the G4 regarding the rotation of the Interim Presidency.
Elections in the United States
With less than two weeks remaining for the elections in the United States attention is focused there. Polls indicate that Biden is ahead, but after what happened 4 years ago not even the Democrats feel sure of the result. Undoubtedly, Biden does not have the negative charge that accompanied Hillary Clinton, but it is not known whether any scandal that derails the candidate will take shape. It is the Americans who make the decision but, because of the importance of the United States, each government and each group in the world has its own wishes. From Venezuela’s perspective, Trump has done much more than Obama but he has not achieved any of the results he promised either. We will have to wait to see what happens. It seems very relevant to hear the words of the Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern (one of today’s most respected global leaders) when she says: “We live in an increasingly polarized world, a place where, more and more, people have lost the ability to see another’s point of view. “
