Political changes in Mexico, Argentina and Bolivia make the Venezuelan regime dream of the possibilities of extending its life with international support. It is an impossible effort to try to obtain resources to reverse the progressive and unstoppable deterioration of all public services and, the impossibility of generating income in dollars for a population that needs to spend in dollars and that now protests with unusual frequency. The national power dips are happening practically daily and citizens are told to use firewood instead of gas. Simultaneously, political arrests are still happening, the preparation for elections continues, creating discontent even among its allies such as the MAS complaining that pro-government advantage marked the recent electoral mock.
The regime seeks a second wind
The international realities of the regime have in practice limited its radius of action to the support provided by 5 countries: Russia, China, Iran, Cuba and Turkey. The role and characteristics of each of these relationships is fully and excellently described in the CSIS’s analysis The Fabulous Five: How Foreign Actors Prop up the Maduro Regime in Venezuela. None of these can help the regime overcome the international financial blockade, but it continues to search for any loophole that would allow it to access said external support. The regime feels reinforced by the coming to power of allies in Mexico, Argentina and now Bolivia and also assumes as his own the result of the referendum in Chile. This group of allied countries is already emboldening itself, even calling for Almagro’s resignation from the OAS. However, where all the expectations of the regime point to is a possible defeat of President Trump in the US elections. Undoubtedly the polls indicate the big probability of a victory for candidate Biden, even if the same was estimated in 2016 and Trump surprised by winning.
It is important to not forget that the Venezuela issue is one of the very few that has absolute bipartisan support in the United States. Beyond that fact, today Venezuela represents a narco-terrorist threat in the continental United States. This type of situation is handled as a matter of state and therefore the treatment that is given is institutional and goes beyond who holds power at a certain moment. Therefore, the chances that the Maduro regime will have the sanctions lifted and that it can obtain financial support in the event of a Biden victory are non-existent, unless of course it is willing to make major changes which it has already refused to do many times, since it would put their permanence in power at risk.
The opposition tries to define itself
The country experienced the escape of political leader Leopoldo López, who was finally able to, after six years of unjust prison and shelter at the Spanish Embassy, reunite with his wife and children. Regardless of the circumstances surrounding his departure it will surely have an effect on the G4 / Guaidó opposition. It has always been known that López has influence over Guaidó but his stay in the Spanish Embassy limited his public communication capacity and that changes now. Now, the immediate and most transcendental situation for the G4 / Guaidó refers to what may happen with the Consultation and with the AN as of 01/05/2021. Besides the legal figure that is being proposed for the extension of life of the AN there are doubts about the possibility of having the necessary votes. Several deputies of the coalition have expressed their disagreement with the extension of the duration of the AN. The possibility that some opponents fear has also appeared, the formation of an interim government in exile led by Leopoldo López.
Fraction 16J and Vente have maintained a consistent position of confronting the regime and demanding that the commitment to cease the usurpation be fulfilled rather than a transition or participation in elections. They have important decisions to make associated with the possible extension of the AN’s action in January 2021 and the management of expectations and international support in the event of a Biden victory in the United States. For their part, Capriles and the followers of his position of agreements with the regime have been left in a very difficult position as they have not been able to obtain a minimum of guarantees for their participation in the parliamentary elections.
Chile as a lesson
Last year it we learnt that in Chile, the country where the greatest economic advances in Latin America had been made, all was not well. The improvements had not benefited all sectors of society and that neglect, added to the use made by the extreme left of the neglected, led the country to a major crisis. The government had to accept the possibility of a new constitution, to replace the one in force for 40 years and which is favorable to the private sector. This past Sunday a plebiscite was held in Chile to determine if the country requires a new constitution. Its approval was supported by all political sectors, except those towards the extreme right, but with a new Constitution they will not solve all the problems, there are important challenges after the historic referendum.
The new constitution that will end up being approved presents two concerns, one is that the state burden increases and the private contribution to the country is limited to a point similar to that of other Latin American countries and ends up being one more country with all their problems. The most serious concern refers to a constitution of the Venezuela type, which absolutely destroys the fabric of the country. The responsibility of the democratic parties of Chile is to work tirelessly so that none of this happens.