The regime gives such importance to the 6D elections that it has preferred to trigger devaluation and inflation in order to create an atmosphere of elections in the country. Regardless of the absolute control it may have over the 6D election results it needs to show people voting. It is their way of showing strength knowing that they are doing badly in the polls. To do this, the regime applies maximum pressure, which includes Diosdado Cabello publicly stating that whoever does not vote will not have food and will not be able to eat. It is not a question of words that escaped him, it is a reinforcement of the message of utter domination. All this while awaiting what the regime intends to achieve with the Biden Administration in the United States. The situation is very complex, so it is important to consider how the world tests the incoming US administration and how Venezuela, the regime and the opposition are doing.
The world tests Biden
The great economic problems of the world always end up generating mega-changes in politics. The global economic deterioration was already under way and the pandemic has magnified it immensely. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the United States remained the only world power, but in 20 years China has grown enormously and other smaller countries have appeared (Russia, Turkey, Iran) that each try to improve their positions with different strategies . The arrival of Trump to the presidency of the United States meant a major transformation in the international role of the United States, in the strategies it applied and in the revaluation of its alliances. Now thar Biden is about to takeover there are multiple considerations:
- During the transition and the early days of the next presidency, enemies and allies will try to take advantage of this interregnum to strengthen their positions and test and measure the new government.
- The “Citgo six”, now sentenced, show that the Venezuelan regime is already preparing the ground to negotiate hard with Biden asking for important concessions. Situations like these are likely to be repeated with other “enemy countries.”
- Israel, one of the key allies of the United States, carried out in these weeks, two operations to eliminate individuals in Iran: Abu Muhammad al-Masri of Al Qaeda and Amir-Ali Hajizadeh, general and nuclear scientist of Iran. Israel is seeking to provoke Iran when it most wants to wait for the arrival of Biden, and at the same time to force positions on the new US government.
- China is the main concern of the United States, regardless of who presides over the country.
- Trump will lose relevance when he ceases to be President, but at this moment historians can not predict Trump’s future role in the Republican party or in US politics.
- Under the existing circumstances, no major changes in US policy toward Venezuela can be expected in the first semester of next year.
The country and the regime
The disappearance of the National Assembly elected in 2015, in the search for total political control of the country, has led the regime to eliminate all opposition parties that it could not control and also those of its own coalition. The country this December 2020 looks like this:
- The made-up figures of those affected by the Covid are conveniently decreasing and allow announcing that throughout the month of December 2020 there will be no restrictions associated with the pandemic. It should come as no surprise that after 6D the regime will be “forced” to impose restrictions again.
- Several weeks ago Maduro announced that there would not be enough fuel and an artificial shortage was scheduled. The calculations existed that would allow them to have enough to survive the weeks before 6D. Undoubtedly the shortage will become more acute later, the refineries continue to fail and El Aissami blames saboteurs for the interruption of production in them.
- Less than 40% of the population expresses intention to participate in the elections for the National Assembly and the Popular Consultation, the general concern is basic survival: finding food.
- The Russian model underway: Agropatria workers were notified that they have a new employer and Lácteos Los Andes would be handed over to an Iranian business group.
- After nine months of paralysis, public transport nationwide does not start on 11/30. The regime is unaware of an agreement and tries to make the reference the value of the dollar for the month of October.
- Parties of the regime’s coalition seek legal avenues to regain control of them.
- The congressional election remains unrecognized by most democratic countries.
- Each and every one of the basic services (power, gas, water, Internet, fuel, transportation) is moving one step closer to total collapse. At any moment one of these (if it is electricity it involves everyone) will tell us how far we have come.
Will this search for absolute political control, accompanied by the continuous deterioration of the economy and services, really strengthen the regime? Could it rather result in its weakening? Is it not betting too much on post-Trump international expectations?
A Meganalysis Survey came out, which besides reporting that the voting intention for the parliamentary elections will not reach 20%, it also shows the absolute disconnection between the opposition and regular Venezuelans. Undoubtedly they are being blamed for the total abandonment of the work for education and general supporting of the people’s needs. The focus has been on electoral processes (when the harvest of income collection is carried out) and statements in the media. Citizens have not given up, but they need to be able to believe in something. Throughout all these years, each time there has been an accumulation of pressure (with high mobilization), there have been factors within that opposition, without assessing their motivations, which have lent themselves to accept the regime’s overtures and so have taken the pressure off with innocuous dialogues and endless elections without strategies. The process of political change for the regime and for the opposition will continue to evolve after January 2021. The opposition has many strengths, but these are only opportunities and potentials, if courses of action are not agreed. This new opposition, will have to agree on a consensual route, from which no one will be able to depart under penalty of being morally and politically sanctioned by the rest.